Flood Check
El Niño and Nigeria's rain
In the three recent strong El Niño years, Nigeria as a whole got 93% of its normal June to September rain in 1997, 92% in 2015 and 104% in 2023. Most of them brought a little less rain than normal, but not every year and not everywhere.
Where it was driest: in 1997, the South South (88%); in 2015, the South West (78%), the South South (80%) and the South East (87%).
In 2026, with a strong El Niño under way, Nigeria got 98% of its normal June to September rain. The South East got 89%, and the driest states were Sokoto (82%), Enugu (83%) and Kebbi (85%).
Season totals hide the timing. An El Niño season can also bring longer dry spells between rains, which hurt crops, and short, heavy storms, which flood streets. Lagos flooded on 30 June 2026, in this El Niño year: see the 3D replay.
- under 60%
- 60 to 80%
- 80 to 95%
- 95 to 105%
- 105 to 120%
- 120 to 140%
- over 140%
By zone: June to September rain, share of normal
| Zone | 1997 | 2015 | 2023 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North West | 99% | 96% | 108% | 93% |
| North East | 93% | 102% | 100% | 102% |
| North Central | 93% | 91% | 107% | 99% |
| South West | 91% | 78% | 114% | 103% |
| South East | 93% | 87% | 96% | 89% |
| South South | 88% | 80% | 97% | 97% |
| Nigeria | 93% | 92% | 104% | 98% |
Every state
| State | Normal | 1997 | 2015 | 2023 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abia | 1364 mm | 89% | 84% | 96% | 94% |
| Adamawa | 862 mm | 97% | 96% | 101% | 101% |
| Akwa Ibom | 1591 mm | 89% | 83% | 94% | 104% |
| Anambra | 1141 mm | 88% | 86% | 95% | 88% |
| Bauchi | 794 mm | 98% | 107% | 105% | 97% |
| Bayelsa | 1750 mm | 83% | 63% | 100% | 91% |
| Benue | 917 mm | 104% | 93% | 99% | 103% |
| Borno | 585 mm | 88% | 108% | 99% | 104% |
| Cross River | 1495 mm | 101% | 96% | 92% | 100% |
| Delta | 1395 mm | 81% | 73% | 99% | 99% |
| Ebonyi | 1154 mm | 103% | 87% | 96% | 88% |
| Edo | 1044 mm | 85% | 79% | 101% | 94% |
| Ekiti | 883 mm | 84% | 90% | 115% | 94% |
| Enugu | 1058 mm | 102% | 89% | 100% | 83% |
| FCT Abuja | 874 mm | 95% | 96% | 101% | 101% |
| Gombe | 752 mm | 92% | 103% | 97% | 95% |
| Imo | 1452 mm | 83% | 88% | 94% | 93% |
| Jigawa | 579 mm | 105% | 105% | 109% | 94% |
| Kaduna | 987 mm | 107% | 95% | 108% | 103% |
| Kano | 785 mm | 109% | 99% | 112% | 93% |
| Katsina | 667 mm | 99% | 98% | 115% | 89% |
| Kebbi | 748 mm | 88% | 89% | 100% | 85% |
| Kogi | 856 mm | 91% | 94% | 107% | 95% |
| Kwara | 782 mm | 84% | 78% | 123% | 102% |
| Lagos | 911 mm | 105% | 73% | 118% | 115% |
| Nasarawa | 894 mm | 94% | 102% | 96% | 99% |
| Niger | 860 mm | 94% | 85% | 115% | 100% |
| Ogun | 766 mm | 98% | 75% | 116% | 111% |
| Ondo | 1022 mm | 87% | 83% | 113% | 100% |
| Osun | 827 mm | 90% | 85% | 121% | 104% |
| Oyo | 674 mm | 89% | 73% | 109% | 99% |
| Plateau | 840 mm | 92% | 102% | 95% | 97% |
| Rivers | 1589 mm | 82% | 74% | 95% | 91% |
| Sokoto | 559 mm | 87% | 98% | 103% | 82% |
| Taraba | 1077 mm | 94% | 96% | 96% | 106% |
| Yobe | 511 mm | 85% | 107% | 100% | 106% |
| Zamfara | 729 mm | 96% | 98% | 114% | 94% |
Month by month, Nigeria
| Month | Normal | 1997 | 2015 | 2023 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 4 mm | 6 mm | 3 mm | 3 mm | 5 mm |
| February | 9 mm | 2 mm | 12 mm | 4 mm | 17 mm |
| March | 31 mm | 41 mm | 41 mm | 45 mm | 38 mm |
| April | 66 mm | 97 mm | 29 mm | 56 mm | 65 mm |
| May | 127 mm | 139 mm | 107 mm | 126 mm | 117 mm |
| June | 168 mm | 194 mm | 112 mm | 192 mm | 181 mm |
| July | 222 mm | 181 mm | 194 mm | 228 mm | 204 mm |
| August | 249 mm | 205 mm | 283 mm | 242 mm | 225 mm |
| September | 219 mm | 221 mm | 202 mm | 229 mm | 234 mm |
| October | 121 mm | 149 mm | 120 mm | 130 mm | - |
| November | 18 mm | 31 mm | 13 mm | 27 mm | - |
| December | 4 mm | 7 mm | 2 mm | 3 mm | - |
Highlighted rows are the June to September season. 2026 runs to September.
Read this with care
- El Niño shifts the odds. It does not set the rain in any one place: each El Niño year above is different.
- CHIRPS mixes satellite readings with rain gauges. It is good at the pattern of a season and weaker for a single storm.
- This is past rain. For what is coming, follow your national weather service.